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Argos
Wind power forecasting system
The Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) from the Department of Energy (DoE) of the Government of the United States of America hired INESC TEC to jointly develop an ambitious project where the goal was to improve the know-how on wind power forecasting and develop new approaches and tools specifically adapted to the conditions in the US.
Besides ANL and INESC TEC, this project was supported by MISO (the Midwest Independent System Operator) and Horizon Wind Energy, at the time the 2nd largest wind power producer in the US.
The project produced that which is considered one of the best and most comprehensive reports on the state of the art in wind power forecasting, available at the ANL website, together with an abridged Quick Guide:
Also, a survey on ramp forecasting is available:
A large description of the results and achievements can be found at
From the scientific results produced, one may retain:
- A new model for short-term point forecasting
- Two new models for uncertainty forecasting
- A new model for ramp forecasting
- A new model for very short-term point forecasting
These models were all tested and validated with data from wind farms in the Midwest of the USA.
Besides forecasting, the project also dealt with building new stochastic unit commitment models and stochastic models for wind power bidding, taking in account the wind uncertainty.
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